EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled 43 points even though eurozone inflation printed a bit higher than expected. The terrorist act in Paris has captured the headlines and its effect on open borders and trader in the eurozone are stressing traders. The US dollar is steadily gaining on safe haven trades while the world watched events unfolding in France and at the G20 summit in Turkey.  The euro is trading at 1.0731. The euro has fallen to a six-month low and global stocks have managed to pare back losses as investors reeled from the aftermath of the worst terrorist attack on European soil in more than a decade.

As the French government began to pound Islamic State targets in Syria on Sunday night, European bourses all initially opened in the red continuing their declines after a torrid week which saw the FTSE 100 have its worst days of trading since mid-August’s market panic.

At the opening bell, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 opened lower by 1.2pc and 0.9pc respectively.

But the sell-off was not as brutal as first expected after futures stocks were down as much as 3pc on Sunday night. France’s main index managed to rise by as much as 0.3pc in early morning trading, while the FTSE 100 opened lower 0.5pc before turning mildly positive.

Eurozone consumer prices unexpectedly increased in October, revised higher from an initial reading of stagnation, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said on Monday.

The region’s inflation rate rose to 0.1 percent from minus 0.1 percent in September, Eurostat said. Economists had predicted no change in prices, according to a Bloomberg survey. The core inflation rate — which excludes volatile elements such as food and energy — increased to 1.1 percent, Eurostat said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus