EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gained 9 points as German data helped buoy the markets and the greenback eased a bit.  The euro is trading at 1.0646. The dollar hovered near an eight-month peak against a basket of currencies on Tuesday; underpinned by expectations the US Federal Reserve is on course to raise interest rates in December.

The dollar index stood at 99.668, not too far from the eight-month high of 100.00 struck overnight. The index had fallen to as low as 98.735 late last week in what was considered a corrective phase after days of strong gains fueled by prospects of tighter US monetary policy.

The euro was little changed at $1.0639 after touching a seven-month trough of $1.0592. The common currency had surged to as high as $1.0736 last week when the dollar came under some pressure.

About 90 percent of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates next month, and based on Fed fund futures, investors have pretty much priced in the move, which is why we firmly believed that last week’s correction was technical and not fundamental. The euro remained mostly apathetic after German GDP figures showed the economy has expanded 0.3% QoQ during the third quarter and 1.8% on a yearly basis, in line with consensus expectations. After dropping to sub-1.06 levels on Monday, the pair has managed to revert the selling pressure and test the 1.0640 area during the Asian session.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction