Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 30 points to trade at 1.2660 as the dollar gained some momentum. The dollar steadied against the euro on
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD fell 30 points to trade at 1.2660 as the dollar gained some momentum. The dollar steadied against the euro on Friday, though lower U.S. yields capped its rebound after the Federal Reserve’s dovish undertones sapped the greenback’s recent strength. The euro was flat at $1.2660, but still within reach of a low of $1.2664 struck overnight after a plunge in German exports raised fears of a recession in Europe’s largest economy and reinforced a case for more action by the European Central Bank.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, suggested the U.S. central bank was in no hurry to hike rates, with a surprise mention of the greenback’s strength further sobering dollar bulls.
Wednesday’s grim German data reinforced expectations that the ECB will eventually have to inject more stimulus, an option the bank reiterated in its monthly bulletin.
German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble said ‘some risks affect Germany more than other EZ countries; now we have to fight for more growth in Europe, will have discussions in coming days; Europe will be asked to do more on growth, all agree; if we don’t stick to EU budget rules, monetary union doesn’t work; Germany is engine of growth in EZ, we stick to 1.5%; we want to give more priority to investment. Schaeuble said ‘worst impact of Russian sanctions will be on Russia.’
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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|
JPY |
Monetary Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
||
|
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-0.9% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance (Aug) |
-9.10B |
-9.60B |
-10.41B |
||
|
GBP |
Trade Balance Non-EU |
-3.59B |
-4.00B |
-4.76B |
||
|
USD |
Export Price Index |
|
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index |
|
-0.7% |
-0.9% |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
|
7.0% |
7.0% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
|
Holiday |
Japan – Health-Sports Day |
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|
|
Holiday |
Canada – Thanksgiving Day |
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|
NZD |
FPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Exports (YoY) (Sep) |
|
|
9.4% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Imports (YoY) (Sep) |
|
|
-2.4% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
|
|
49.83B |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 13 09:00 Norway T-bill auction
Oct 13 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 13 09:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 6M Bubill (Apr 2015) auction
Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction
Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)
Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction
Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23