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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Oct 14, 2014, 09:20 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 30 points to trade at 1.2660 as the dollar gained some momentum.  The dollar steadied against the euro on

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 30 points to trade at 1.2660 as the dollar gained some momentum.  The dollar steadied against the euro on Friday, though lower U.S. yields capped its rebound after the Federal Reserve’s dovish undertones sapped the greenback’s recent strength. The euro was flat at $1.2660, but still within reach of a low of $1.2664 struck overnight after a plunge in German exports raised fears of a recession in Europe’s largest economy and reinforced a case for more action by the European Central Bank.

The Fed’s September meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, suggested the U.S. central bank was in no hurry to hike rates, with a surprise mention of the greenback’s strength further sobering dollar bulls.

Wednesday’s grim German data reinforced expectations that the ECB will eventually have to inject more stimulus, an option the bank reiterated in its monthly bulletin.

German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble said ‘some risks affect Germany more than other EZ countries; now we have to fight for more growth in Europe, will have discussions in coming days; Europe will be asked to do more on growth, all agree; if we don’t stick to EU budget rules, monetary union doesn’t work; Germany is engine of growth in EZ, we stick to 1.5%; we want to give more priority to investment. Schaeuble said ‘worst impact of Russian sanctions will be on Russia.’ 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry Activity

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM)

-0.9%

0.1%

0.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Aug)

-9.10B

-9.60B

-10.41B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU

-3.59B

-4.00B

-4.76B

 

 

  USD

 

Export Price Index

 

-0.1%

-0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Import Price Index

 

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

 

  CAD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

7.0%

7.0%

 

 

EURUSD(60 minutes)20141010132812

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  NZD

 

FPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

 

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

 

 

9.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Sep)

 

 

-2.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

 

49.83B

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 13 09:00 Norway T-bill auction

Oct 13 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 13 09:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 6M Bubill (Apr 2015) auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

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