EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD continued to fall trading at 1.2648 down by 9 points after German inflation met expectations and a speech from

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continued to fall trading at 1.2648 down by 9 points after German inflation met expectations and a speech from Mario Draghi. The euro fell to a session low of $1.2624, and last stood at $1.2638, down about 0.1 percent on the day. It pulled away from a nearly one-week high of $1.2770 on Tuesday, after a closely watched ZEW survey showed German analyst and investor morale fell below zero for the first time in nearly two years in October. Also on Tuesday, the German government cut its growth forecasts, euro zone industrial production fell, and Fitch warned it may cut France’s credit ratings, saying the outlook for the country’s economy had deteriorated.

The euro eased a bit against the dollar, and with euro zone inflation expectations falling rapidly, traders said the single currency was likely to stay under pressure against the greenback. Falling inflation expectations are likely to cement the view that the European Central Bank may have to resort to quantitative easing sooner rather than later.

Adding to the gloom, China’s inflation rate slowed more than expected in September, dropping to a near five-year low and heightening concerns that global growth is cooling, raising the pressure on governments to take bolder measures to shore up their economies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Consumer Sentiment	0.9%		-4.6%
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Sep)	-1.8%	-1.6%	-1.2%
JPY	Industrial Production	-1.9%	-1.5%	-1.5%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EUR	ECB President Draghi
GBP	Average Earnings Index	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%
GBP	Claimant Count	-18.6K	-35.0K	-33.2K
GBP	Unemployment Rate	6.0%	6.1%	6.2%
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Core Retail Sales		0.3%	0.3%
USD	NY Empire State		20.50	27.54
USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
USD	Business Inventories		0.4%	0.4%
USD	Federal Budget		80.9B	-129.0B
USD	Beige Book
EUR	ECB President Draghi

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Sep)			56.5
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)		0.7%	0.7%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.4%	0.1%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		290K	287K
CAD	Manufacturing Sales		-1.6%	2.5%
USD	Industrial Production		0.4%	-0.1%
USD	Phil Fed Manufacturing		20.0	22.5