EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 5, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading flat early in the session at 1.3173. There is a good deal of data scheduled to hit the market later in the day, but traders are once again focused on tensions in Syria after President Obama received support from Congressional leaders for a limited strike.  Eurozone GDP reported at forecast while eurozone retail sales missed the mark which will weigh on the euro today as US data is expected to be supportive of the dollar.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 55.7 in August, the highest level in 26 months. The U.S. manufacturing growth is led by a jump in construction spending, new orders and exports demand. The ISM increase and the expectation of the Fed’s tapering this month have strengthened the U.S. Dollar. The China official PMI Index in August jumped to 51, a three-year high, compared to an expectation of 50.6. The Eurozone August PMI also rose faster than expected due to the growth in Spain and Italy.  Statisticians have reported that Germany’s exports to nations around the globe have dipped by over half a percentage point in the first six months of the year as the eurozone crisis continued to take its toll.

Overall German exports dropped by 0.6 percent to 547.4 billion euros ($720.7 billion) in the first half of 2013, the National Statistics Office, Destatis, announced Wednesday.

Total shipments to the 27 fellow EU member countries decreased by 1.7 percent over the same period, while exports to the smaller 17-member debt-stricken eurozone tumbled by 2.9 percent between January and June, with shipments to Italy dipping by well over six percent. This week’s U.S. payroll numbers and the unemployment rate will give more hints to the Fed’s likely actions in the FOMC meeting this month. Policy meetings, macro data, geopolitical news, and seasonal gold pattern will dominate gold trading in September. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.   

Economic Data September 4, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 05 08:30 Spain

Sep 05 08:50 France

Sep 05 15:00 US

Sep 06 15:30 Italy