The EUR/USD is trading flat-to-slightly-lower shortly before the U.S. opening and ahead of the U.S. Consumer Inflation report at 1230 GMT. The CPI report and Core CPI report are expected to come in at 0.2%.
A number below the estimate could reduce the chances of a Fed rate hike later in the year. This would pressure U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. This would be potentially bullish for the Euro.
Stronger consumer inflation data is likely to put pressure on the EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1910 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 1.1689 will negate a closing price reversal bottom and turn momentum to the downside.
The short-term range is 1.1910 to 1.1689. Its retracement zone at 1.1800 to 1.1826 is the primary upside target. This zone is important because aggressive counter-trend traders are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top on a test of this zone.
Bullish investors are going to try to take out this zone in an effort to take out 1.1910 and make 1.1689 a new main bottom.
The main range is 1.1312 to 1.1910. If the selling continues then look for a break into its retracement zone at 1.1611 to 1.1540. An uptrending angle passes through this zone at 1.1582, making it a valid downside target.
Forecast
The early price action indicates that the key angle to watch is 1.1770.
A sustained move over this angle will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a labored rally however because of a number of potential resistance levels at 1.1800, 1.1826, 1.1840 and 1.1875.
Crossing to the strong side of a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 1.1852 and 1.1878 will also tell us that the buying is getting stronger.
A sustained move under 1.1770 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is 1.1689. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1611 then 1.1582.
