EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for December 2, 2016

The EUR/USD is trading lower at the mid-session and shortly ahead of the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1330 GMT. The report is expected to show the economy added 177K jobs in November. This is up from the previous 161K. Because of the much better-than-expected private sector number from ADP on Wednesday, I am looking for a number north of 200K.

Average Hourly Earnings, a Fed favorite, is forecast at 0.2%, down slightly from the previous 0.4%. The higher the better for a rate hike and future increases. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in unchanged at 4.9%.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when the market took out 1.0685. The rally stalled at 1.0689, however, due to the lack of buyers ahead of the jobs report. The uptrend will resume later in the session if buyers can drive through 1.0689. The main trend will turn down on a trade through 1.0517.

The short-term range is 1.0517 to 1.0689. Its retracement zone at 1.0603 to 1.0583 is the primary upside target. Buyers will try to produce a secondary higher bottom on a test of this zone. It is very important to the structure of the current chart pattern.

The main range is 1.1299 to 1.0517. If there is a prolonged move to the upside then 1.0908 will become the primary upside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.0646, the direction of the EUR/USD will be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at 1.0637.

A sustained move over 1.0637 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge 1.0689 then 1.0757. Overcoming the uptrending angle at 1.0757 will put the EUR/USD in a bullish position.

A sustained move under 1.0637 will signal the presence of sellers. The next downside targets include a minor 50% level at 1.0603, a minor 61.8% level at 1.0583 and an uptrending angle at 1.0577. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.0517 main bottom.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.0637 today. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if the buyers are coming in to support the market, or if sellers are taking control.