The EUR/USD is trading lower on Wednesday, but inside yesterday’s range, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility. Progress on tax reform is seen as a positive for the U.S. Dollar as well as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates although a flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve kept investors’ hopes in check. The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown is a negative for the U.S. Dollar. If lawmakers fail to reach a budget accord this week, the government will lose funding on Friday.
Daily Swing Chart Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through yesterday’s low at 1.1800 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next major target coming in at 1.1712.
The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1940, followed by 1.1961.
Daily Swing Chart Forecast
Based on the earlier trade, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s low at 1.1800.
A sustained move over 1.1800 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential resistance levels at 1.1807, 1.1823 and 1.1837.
If buyers can overcome 1.1837 on rising volume, we could see the rally extend into the major Fibonacci level at 1.1886.
We could see an acceleration to the downside if 1.1800 fails and the selling volume increases.