The EUR/USD is trading lower at the mid-session as investors prepare for his first press conference since he was elected in November. Traders expect journalists to drill him on topics like the Russian hacking scandal, the repealing of Obamacare and conflicts of interest. There could be very little offered on actual economic issues such as Trump’s plans to rebuild America through fiscal spending, looser banking regulations and tax cuts.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through 1.0652. It will be reaffirmed on a move through the last swing bottom at 1.0339.
The main range is 1.0872 to 1.0339. Its retracement zone at 1.0606 to 1.0668 is the primary upside target. This zone stopped a rally on December 30 at 1.0652 and at 1.0627 on January 10.
The short-term range is 1.0652 to 1.0339. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.0496 is the primary downside target.
Forecast
Based on the current price at 1.0506 and the earlier price action, the direction of the Euro today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.0496.
Holding 1.0496 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge a cluster of numbers at 1.0582, 1.0606 and 1.0617.
The rally could expand over 1.0617 with targets coming in at 1.0627, 1.0652 and 1.0668. The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is 1.0668.
Taking out 1.0496 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break into 1.0459. This is a trigger point for a further break into the next uptrending angle at 1.0399.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.0496 today. Trader reaction to this price will set the tone for the day. Look for volatility during Trump’s press conference.
