EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 29, 2017

The EUR/USD is trading slightly higher early Friday. The Forex pair took out yesterday’s high but there was not much of a follow-through rally. This made 1.1716 a new main bottom. The range is tight and volume is low, but we expect this to pick up when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivers a speech at 1415 GMT.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the formation of a new main bottom suggests that momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside.

A trade through 1.1716 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This would turn 1.1808 into a new main top and could create enough downside momentum to challenge the August 17 main bottom at 1.1661.

The main range is 1.1661 to 1.2092. Its retracement zone at 1.1826 to 1.1875 is resistance.

The short-term range is 1.2033 to 1.1716. Overtaking the Fibonacci level at 1.1826 could trigger a rally into its retracement zone at 1.1874 to 1.1912.

Combining the two retracement zones makes the price cluster at 1.1874 to 1.1875 the best target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1800 and the earlier price action, the first target is a long-term uptrending angle at 1.1816. This is followed by the Fib level at 1.1826.

The Fib level at 1.1826 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the 50% level at 1.1874 the first target, followed by a downtrending angle at 1.1893.

The inability to overcome the angle at 1.1816 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break back into a pair of uptrending angles at 1.1756 and 1.1736. This is followed by the main bottom at 1.1716. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into at least 1.1661.

Basically, we’re looking for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over 1.1816 and for the bearish tone to resume on a sustained move under 1.1816. Needless to say, this is the line in the sand today.