EUR/USD Possible Bearish Move Today?

After a last week in a bearish movement, the EUR/USD pair started pushing higher this week. Big question is where can we can expect Dollar to start pushing higher again? We got prepared for today two wave counts that will help us to determinate possible resistance point.

Primary Count

If we look at the first count at 2-hourly chart, we can see that A wave (coloured blue) of the bigger corrective (B) wave (coloured green) was developing for the last few days. Now if we try to count impulsive structure of the A wave we can notice that 5th wave is almost finish so we need to be prepared for the bearish scenario when developing of the B wave (coloured blue) start. According to Elliott rules B wave usually retrace 50-61.8% of the corrective A wave. We can measure the next potential targets with the help of the Fibonacci Retracement tool (1.2877-1.3053) and we obtain the next possible targets at levels of 1.2961 (50% of BvsA) and 1.2941 (61.8% of BvsA). If the price push above the level of 1.3080 then our count will be invalid, so this is a good Stop Level.

Alternation Count

According to our alternation count the EUR/USD pair is currently at the end of the 1 impulsive wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (5) wave (coloured green) and in this count too we are expecting to see drop in this major pair soon. We know that  wave 2 often retrace 50-61.8% of wave 1 so if we measure possible targets we would get same targets like we get in the Primary Count. So we need to wait for 2 wave (coloured blue) to broker lower channel support line at 1.3020 level so that we will have confirmation for entering a short position today.

Fundamental View

Today News from European union showed positive results but we still need to take a look at  news coming from the United States:

– Import Prices m/m
– FOMC Press Conference
– Crude Oil Inventories
– 10-y Bond Auction
– FOMC Economic Projections
– FOMC Statement 

This news can impact to our wave count and change our count completely.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.2865 (S2) 1.2896 (S1) 1.2951 (PP) 1.2982 (R1) 1.3037 (R2) 1.3068 (R3) 1.3123   

Final Conclusion  About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD finished the development of the corrective A wave (coloured blue and we are expecting to see the price drop today when development of the B wave begins. Potential Targets can be set at 1.2961 (50%) and 1.2941 (61.8%), for Stop loss we can use resistance at a level of 1.3080.

-ND-