EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 6/12/15

The EUR/USD ending the week up a nearly a big figure and a half, as a selloff in German Bunds and positive momentum lifted the currency pair.  Prices during the past week were very choppy whipping around between 1.1080 and 1.1380.  Since retesting support in early April, price are in the process of a slow grind higher, despite better than expected US data, which should generate tailwinds for the greenback.

Momentum on the currency pair turned positive as the beginning of the week as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the 9-day moving average of the spread.  The trajectory of the MACD index is positive pointing to a higher exchange rate. 

Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that connects the highs in May to the high in June and comes in near 1.1380.  A close above this level should generate a test of the May highs at 1.1465.  Prices are hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which reflects the rebound from the highs in December to the lows in March.

Short term support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.1207, and then again at the 50-day moving average at 1.032.  A close below 1.0940, which coincides with an upward sloping trend line that connects the lows in April to the lows in May would signal a move back to the April lows.