Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD hit a high this week on Friday morning of 1.3256 as traders sold off to book profits before the end of the
The EUR/USD hit a high this week on Friday morning of 1.3256 as traders sold off to book profits before the end of the year and ahead of new tax changes in the US. On Friday, the greenback edged up to a two-week high against major currencies as investors waited to see if US politicians can strike a last-minute budget deal to avert tax hikes and spending cuts next year. President Barack Obama and Democratic and Republican lawmakers met on Friday and over the weekend leaders from both parties are meeting as the year-end deadline approaches. Members of both parties were divided on the odds of success. What will happen is anyone’s guess as there is a vote scheduled for Sunday. Markets are expected to be volatile on Monday as traders are finding themselves stuck between automatic tax changes and those that might be passed at the last minute. US eco data this week was strong with new home sales posting its highest level in 2 years and manufacturing and PMI reporting strong also. Unemployment came in at forecast. There was little data from the EU, with most markets closed for the long holiday including Box Day. France missed the mark on GDP printing 50% below forecast. And across the border in Italy, Mario Monti is kicking off a new political party and may run for Premier in the next elections after resigning as the current Premier. It’s a big complicated but so it Italian politics.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Dec 28, 2012 |
1.3216 |
1.3248 |
1.3256 |
1.3166 |
-0.24% |
Dec 27, 2012 |
1.3248 |
1.3228 |
1.3284 |
1.3202 |
0.15% |
Dec 26, 2012 |
1.3228 |
1.3180 |
1.3254 |
1.3172 |
0.36% |
Dec 25, 2012 |
1.3180 |
1.3193 |
1.3193 |
1.3179 |
-0.10% |
Dec 24, 2012 |
1.3193 |
1.3180 |
1.3233 |
1.3172 |
0.10% |
With a big month ahead for Europe’s political leaders, we’ll also be following some crucial bond auctions this month. The yields and demand for Spanish, Italian, French, and Belgian debt will be particularly important, as these are the four countries still on the market that faced pressure late last year on the debt markets.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of December 24 -28 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 27 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
33.6K |
34.6K |
33.1K |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
350K |
360K |
362K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3206K |
3200K |
3238K |
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
65.1 |
70.0 |
71.5 |
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
377K |
378K |
361K |
Dec. 28 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.48% |
4.45% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
51.6 |
51.0 |
50.4 |
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
1.7% |
1.0% |
5.0% |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.
Average: 1.3434 USD over this period.
Lowest: 1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jan. 01 |
01:00 |
CNY |
51.00 |
50.60 |
|
Jan. 02 |
00:00 |
EUR |
0.7% |
-0.1% |
|
|
00:00 |
EUR |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
08:00 |
CHF |
1.38 |
1.50 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
50.2 |
49.5 |
|
Jan. 03 |
08:00 |
CHF |
1.35 |
1.50 |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
48.5 |
48.5 |
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
10K |
5K |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Thursday, January 5: France will auction an estimated €7-8 billion ($9.1-10.4 billion) in 10-year and other long-term bonds
Tuesday, January 10: Austria will auction €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) in 5- and 10-year bonds
Thursday, January 12: Spanish 3- and 5-year bond auction
Friday, January 13: Italy will auction medium-long term bonds
Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds
Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction
Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction
Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction
Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction