EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD hit new 2014 lows trading at 1.2515 after the release of a better than expected nonfarm payroll report. Unemployment is the US unexpectedly tumbled to 5.9% lower than most of the leading economics around the globe. The USD is strengthening broadly, supported by steadily improving fundamentals that are driving an ongoing reassessment of relative monetary policy among the advanced economies as well as a reconsideration of growth differentials vs. developing economies. These developments are weighing on global commodity prices within an environment of heightened geopolitical risk and rising volatility.

In Europe, prolonged economic weakness, deeper monetary policy accommodation and heightened geopolitical events are driving currency market sentiment. With the fundamentals and flows having both shifted more negatively against the euro zone economic environment, the euro has lost significant ground. Looking ahead, the softening trend is likely to slow, yet the euro is still vulnerable to downside pressure.

The U.S. currency climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts after data showed American employers added more workers than forecast last month and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 2008. The euro fell to a two-year low as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi held interest rates at a record low. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.4577 USD on Jul 03, 2011

Average: 1.3165 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.2041 USD on Jul 24, 2012

Events You Should Be Monitoring This Week:

CAD                      Ivey PMI

NZD                      NZIER Business Confidence

JPY                        Monetary Policy Statement

AUD                      Cash Rate

AUD                      RBA Rate Statement

JPY                        BOJ Press Conference

GBP                       Manufacturing Production m/m

CAD                      Building Permits m/m

USD                      FOMC Meeting Minutes

AUD                      Employment Change

AUD                      Unemployment Rate

GBP                       Asset Purchase Facility

GBP                       Official Bank Rate

GBP                       MPC Rate Statement

USD                      Unemployment Claims

EUR                      ECB President Draghi Speaks

CAD                      Employment Change

CAD                      Unemployment Rate

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction