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Expectations Running High Ahead Of Peloton Earnings

By:
Alan Farley
Updated: Jul 20, 2021, 10:48 UTC

The fast-growing fitness platform has already rallied close to 200% so far in 2020.

Peloton store exterior in upscale outdoor shopping center.

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Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) reports Q4 2020 earnings on September 10, with analysts expecting a profit of $0.11 per-share on $574.86 million in revenue. The stock jumped 16% after May’s Q3 report despite a greater-than expected loss and has doubled in price since that time, underpinned by a wave of upgrades and bullish channel checks. Even so, a long string of quarterly losses has market watchers wondering how long this momentum play can keep flying high.

Peloton Rapid Growth

The company now boasts the largest interactive fitness platform in the world, with more than 2.6 million members. It’s having trouble keeping up with surging demand, despite doubling the manufacturing pace since March and a prior disclosure that estimated delivery times would “normalize” in July or August. This game of catch-up suggests that strong sales and expanding revenue will continue into fiscal year 2021, underpinning the stock price even though it’s already gained nearly 200% year-to-date.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmut raised their Peloton target from $58 to $105 last week, noting the company “is on our U.S. Analyst Focus List and is one of our top picks. We continue to like shares into earnings and believe there is significant upside potential to consensus estimates both near and long term. Peloton’s biggest near-term challenge in our view is keeping up with elevated demand, with Bike order-to-delivery times of 6 to 7 weeks on average across the top 20 U.S. markets, as of our checks on September 1.”

Wall Street And Technical Outlook

Wall Street rates Peloton as a ‘Strong Buy’, based upon 15 ‘Buy’ and just 1 ‘Hold’ recommendation. No analysts are recommending that shareholders sell positions and move to the sidelines at this time. Price targets currently range from a low of $58 to a street-high $109 while the stock is now trading just above the $79.50 target. Expectations are extremely high ahead of the earnings release so results may need to exceed estimates to support additional upside.

A May 2020 breakout above the 2019 high at 36.00 attracted intense momentum buying interest, carving a powerful trend advance that stalled near 70 in July. Price action cleared that barrier in late August, reaching an all-time high at 92.50 on September 2. The stock sold off more than 18 points before bouncing into the Labor Day holiday in the United States, indicating that pre-earnings volatility is now picking up steam.

About the Author

Alan Farley is the best-selling author of ‘The Master Swing Trader’ and market professional since the 1990s, with expertise in balance sheets, technical analysis, price action (tape reading), and broker performance.

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