Forex Monthly Outlook – September 2017

The GBPUSD pair ended the month near the lows of its range and this points to further weakness in the coming month for the pair. It was a volatile month for the pair as the first half of the month was marked by bullishness in the pair and the second half of the month was marked by weakness. The bullishness in the early half was due to the weakness in the dollar which had  a tough time due to the mixed economic data from the US and also due to the lack of support from the Fed who left the dollar to the mercy of the markets.

GBPUSD Has a Choppy Month

Also, we saw some strength in the pound despite the uncertainty in the Brexit process which seems to be dragging on and on. The GBPUSD pair made its way towards the 1.33 region and looked set to move further before the BOE put paid to the hopes of the bulls. The BOE made it clear that it would not be looking to hike rates anytime soon as the Brexit process continues to bring in risks and this led to a large round of selling in the pound. The data from the UK also turned out to be choppy and mixed and this further affected the pound which then moved through the 1.30 region and ended the month on a weak note.

Looking ahead to the month of September, we have the usual sets of monthly data but apart from the peripheral data like the PMIs and the GDP and production data from the UK, there is not much to look forward to as far as the UK is concerned as the BOE has made its stance of no rate hike pretty much clear. All it needs is a spark from the dollar for the roles to get reversed as the pound is already weak and we would then be looking to push through towards 1.25 during the course of the month.

The USDJPY had a pretty tight ranging month, by its own high standards. The monthly range for the pair was less than 300 pips and this led to some difficult trading for those who trade for the long term. The dollar was on the backfoot for much of the month and the yen also gained in strength for some parts of the month but the combination of both was not enough to push the pair below the 108 region, even though the bears did try to do that a few times during the month.

USDJPY In Tight Range

The pair was clearly affected by all the geopolitical tension as North Korea continued to threaten the US through their missile tests and whenever that happened, we would have a bout of buying in the yen as it is considered as a safe haven. During these times, we did see the pair making its way towards its range lows but the breakout never came through as the support was too strong. The bulls got some relief towards the end of the month as the risks began to recede and the stock markets began to recover.

This is something that the bulls would look forward to in the month of September. With the holiday period also getting over, the traders are likely to return back to their desks in full force and the volatility is likely to pick up. Though the data from the US has not been spectacular of late, there have been signs of stabilisation and the receding of risks should also help the dollar and the stock markets as well. This is something that is usually very supportive of the USDJPY pair and the strong close of the pair in August should augur well for the month of September. We expect the pair to continue to move higher during the course of the month when the region around 113 and 115 should become obvious targets for the USDJPY pair.

AUDUSD Likely to be Choppy

The higher prices and the uptrend in the gold market proved to be supportive of the Aussie and this helped the AUDUSD pair to trade in a buoyant manner during the course of the month. The range was a bit tight during the month as the bulls would have expected to see a much stronger month, especially due to the fact that the dollar was on the backfoot for much of the month. The rise of global risk might have weighed on the Aussie and led to a period of consolidation and ranging in the pair.

Looking ahead to the month of September, the fact that the prices closed near the highs of the month should give a lot of hope for the bulls who would expect to push the pair back through the 0.80, which has been a tough nut to crack, and push further as well. But the dollar strength has been increasing of late and we expect the dollar to become stronger during the course of the month and a combination of these is likely to lead to some choppy action in the AUDUSD pair during September, with a bearish bias.