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GBP/USD – Pound Pauses After Impressive Rally, U.S. Job Data Looms

The British pound has taken a breather on Friday, but is up almost 2 percent on the week. The pound has gained ground as the Conservatives continue to hold a lead in election polls. The Aussie and NZ dollar have also posted sharp gains against the U.S dollar this week.
Kenny Fisher
GBP/USD daily chart, November 11, 2019

GBP/USD is steady in Friday trade. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3149, down 0.07% on the day. There are no major British indicators on the schedule.

Election Polls Fuel Pound Rally

The pound has recorded daily gains every day this week, and GBP/USD is up almost 2 percent on the week. This surge has come despite soft British economic numbers this week. PMI releases for November indicated contraction in the manufacturing, services and construction sectors, as the economy continues to struggle. Investors shrugged off the disappointing news, preferring to focus on the British election next week. Recent election polls give the Conservatives a lead of 9-11 points over Labour, which is clearly music  to the market’s ears. Investors prefer the pro-business stance of the Conservatives, compared to the social-leaning stance of  Labour, such as plans to nationalize energy and water utilities.

Ahead – U.S. NFPs and Wage Growth

The U.S. releases key employment data later on Friday, which could shake up GBP/USD. Analysts are expecting strong numbers, which could boost the U.S. dollar. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to increase sharply to 181 thousand, compared to 128 thousand in the previous release. As well, wage growth is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%. The UoM Consumer Sentiment index is also expected to climb to 97.0, up from 95.7 pts.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has moved some distance above 1.3100 and has moved close to resistance at 1.3200. This major line has held since late March, so it would be a significant development for the pair if this line is breached.

GBP/USD 1-Day Chart

Pacific Currencies – Summary

USD/CNY

USD/CNY started the week with gains and climbed above climbed the 7.0700 line, its highest level since October 23. However, the yuan has managed to recover these losses, as the pair has retracted. The pair is currently at 7.0331, down 0.16% on the day.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has reversed directions on Friday, and is trading at 0.6843, down 0.11% on the day. The pair has gained 1.2% this week, and is on track for its highest 1-week gain since late October.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6565, up 0.29% on the day. It has been a banner week for the pair, which is up 2.2% on the week. The New Zealand dollar is at its highest level since early August.

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