GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Breaks 200 Day EMA

The British pound has broken above the 200 day EMA against the United States dollar, reaching towards the 1.27 level. However, we are getting relatively close to a significant resistance barrier, so it is worth paying attention to the 1.2750 level above yet again. After all, this is an area that has caused significant selling more than once, so if we cannot break above there, it would suggest that we are going to go much lower eventually.

GBP/USD Video 17.06.20

Looking at the chart, I believe there is a clear pathway above the 1.28 handle to reach the 1.30 level, but that is an area that will create even more resistance based upon the idea of the large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course the area causing a bit of a breakdown. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppy behavior, and with the United States producing the biggest jump in retail sales ever during the session, this suggests that the British pound may struggle to gain against the greenback for a longer-term trade.

The level above will continue to be one of concern, but if we were to turn around a break down below the 50 day EMA, colored in red on the chart, then the market probably breaks down significantly. One has to think that it is only a matter of time before Brexit comes into play and that sterling is somewhat susceptible to bad news at this point. While I recognize that the short-term path may be a little bit higher, I would not get overly excited to the upside quite yet.

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