The British pound has tested a trendline during trading on Wednesday as the market continues to try to recover, but quite frankly it’s probably only a matter of time before we roll over.
The British pound has recovered quite stringently over the last several weeks, and we did break above the 1.15 level during the early hours on Wednesday. That being said, the market is still very much in a downtrend, although this has been an absolutely brutal relief rally. That is the nature of bear markets, they have massive turnarounds occasionally. After all, even though the short-term danger in Great Britain has subsided, there is still too good issues out there waiting for the new prime minister.
If we break below the 1.15 level again, I’m going to start shorting this pair. I believe that the 1.16 level will continue to be important as it is right at that same downtrend line, so with that in mind I am looking at this through the prism of fading rallies, but I have yet to get the exhaustion candle that I’m looking for. As far as buying is concerned, it’s difficult to get overly excited in this market as long as interest rates in the United States continue to climb, and of course we continue to have a lot of issues this winter in not only the European Union, but the United Kingdom. The US dollar may have gotten a little overbought, but at this point in time I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we returned to the fold.
Expect a lot of volatility, especially in the British pound, as there are so many questions out there on what will happen next. There is a lot of work to do by the British government in order to reign in the economy.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.