GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 10, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations: On Thursday, the Bank of England policymakers decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low. Policymakers debated over data which showed the weakening Euro Zone economy weighing on the U.K. economy as well as domestic growth reports showing signs of losing momentum.

BOE President Mark Carney most likely argued for more time for the economy to recover before starting to raise rates. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee was probably split like it has been during the last two meetings. The market’s weakness reflected traders decreasing bets of a rate increase in early 2015.

The GBP/USD finished lower after early session strength. The early rally was a follow-through move in reaction to Wednesday’s release of dovish Fed minutes. In the September minutes, the Fed expressed concerns about the weakening global economy and the level of the U.S. Dollar.

The release of better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless data also weighed on the British Pound on Thursday. On Friday, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest U.K. Trade Balance figure. This report is expected to how a 9.6B decline. This is a slight improvement to last month’s 10.2B reading.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Today’s Economic Releases 

                Currency                                                  Event                                                     Forecast        Previous

                 

                 EUR                                          French Industrial Production                                 -0.2%             0.2%

                 GBP                                          Trade Balance                                                       -9.6B             -10.2B

                 CAD                                          Employment Change                                            18.7K            -11.0K

                 CAD                                          Unemployment Rate                                              7.0%              7.0%

                 USD                                          Import Prices m/m                                                -0.5%             -0.9%

                 USD                                          FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

                 ALL                                           IMF Meetings

                 CAD                                          BOC Business Outlook Survey

                 ALL                                           G20 Meetings

                 USD                                          FOMC Member Fisher Speaks