GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD eased by 69 points to trade at 1.6047 after the release of trade balance numbers, which showed a narrowing in the balance which was caused by a drop in imports and exports. In UK the Trade deficit data printed slightly better than forecast at -9.1B versus -9.6B eyed but the headline number hid a weakness as imports fell to their lowest level since 2010. The news suggests that consumer demand remains tepid and that is likely to keep BoE neutral for the foreseeable future.

After surging around 10 percent in five months against a basket of currencies to reach a four-year high of 86.747 last Friday, the dollar has retreated more than 1 percent and is heading for its biggest weekly fall in over a year.

In a speech on Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the dollar’s exchange rate was “appropriate” but added that the U.S. central bank would watch the currency for its impact on aggregate demand.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 13 09:00 Norway T-bill auction

Oct 13 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 13 09:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 6M Bubill (Apr 2015) auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23