Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD posted a modest gain, finishing at 1.4492, up 0.0022, or 0.15%. Trader indecision and position-squaring ahead of
The GBP/USD posted a modest gain, finishing at 1.4492, up 0.0022, or 0.15%.
Trader indecision and position-squaring ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress helped underpin the market, however, it also kept a lid on the market and contributed to the below average volatility and volume.
With today’s testimony, investors will be looking for clues regarding the timing of another rate hike, this event could be a market-mover, so traders should be prepared for better-than-average volatility and volume throughout the session.
Traders should expect to see Yellen take on some pointed questions from the members of the House Committee on Financial Services at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Her comments will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. After raising interest rates in December for the first time since 2006, the Fed remained on the sidelines in January, but issued a dovish monetary policy statement. This move reflected a softening in U.S. economic growth.
Yellen’s testimony will help investors decide if a March rate hike is still on the table, or if the first rate hike in 2016 has been moved to June, September or beyond. Traders want clarity and conviction from Yellen, however, she may deliver the company line, “a rate hike will be data dependent”. The Euro is likely to pick up strength if Yellen’s responses are confusing to investors.
If Yellen paints a pessimistic picture of the economy, the GBP/USD could also post strong gains. Just a couple of months ago, the Fed was hinting at the possibility of a series of rate hikes in 2016, but these plans have drastically changed since the first of the year, with many experts openly questioning if the central bank will make any more moves before next year.
Look for the GBP/USD to strengthen if Yellen comes off as unclear about the intentions of the Fed and is pessimistic about the economy. Look for the GBP/USD to break if Yellen talks about the economy and the timing of futures rate hikes with clarity and conviction.
According to data released on Wednesday, Britain’s industrial production slumped 1% in December after warm weather forced a sharp decline in energy output and the low price hit North Sea oil producers. The decline meant that industrial output in the U.K. suffered its sharpest monthly drop in three years in December, official figures showed. The Office for National Statistics said industrial output fell 1.1% in December compared with a 0.8% fall in November.
The manufacturing sector suffered a further decline from an already weak November while mining and quarrying also dropped, fueling concerns that the slowdown in the U.S. and turmoil on global markets is undermining confidence across the U.K.’s major export industries. Manufacturing output fell 0.2% in December for the third month in a row.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
Today’s economic releases:
China – Lunar New Year | |||||||
USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.400M | 3.80M | 3.837M | |||
NZD | Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.2% | |||
AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 4.2% | -1.0% | -3.5% | |||
AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 6.0% | -2.7% | ||||
GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | |||
GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.4% | |||
GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.6% | |||||
USD | Fed Chair Yellen Testifies | ||||||
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.933M | 7.792M | ||||
USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | ||||||
USD | Federal Budget Balance (Jan) | 45.0B | -14.0B | ||||
NZD | Business NZ Pmi (Jan) | 56.7 | |||||
GBP | RICS House Price Balance (Jan) | 52% | 50% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
China – Lunar New Year | |||||||
EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | ||||||
USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 281K | 285K | ||||
USD | Fed Chair Yellen Testifies | ||||||
AUD | RBA Governor Stevens Speaks | 3.933M | 7.792M | ||||
AUD | Home Loans (MoM) (Dec) |
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time and Country
Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction
Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction
Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18
Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.