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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The GBP/USD gained for the week, but closed the week on a negative note. On Wednesday Chancellor Osborne presented his
The GBP/USD gained for the week, but closed the week on a negative note. On Wednesday Chancellor Osborne presented his Autumn statement which is a half year budget review and a mini budget for the balance of the year. He presented a fairly negative view of the UK finances and the statement showed that current austerity programs were not reaching successful conclusion as of yet. At the end of his presentation, the National Statistics Bureau revised downward 2013 growth numbers and rating agencies S&P and Moody’s are now reviewing the UKs credit standing and might knock it down a notch from its AAA rating. On Thursday the Bank of England held rates and policies and thereby avoided a public statement. The pair opened the week at 1.6023 and closed at 1.6043 gaining for the week, which is surprising. The GBP had hit a high of 1.6131 earlier in the week
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Dec 07, 2012 |
1.6043 |
1.6049 |
1.6061 |
1.6003 |
-0.04% |
|
Dec 06, 2012 |
1.6049 |
1.6092 |
1.6128 |
1.6037 |
-0.27% |
|
Dec 05, 2012 |
1.6092 |
1.6100 |
1.6118 |
1.6082 |
-0.04% |
|
Dec 04, 2012 |
1.6099 |
1.6098 |
1.6131 |
1.6087 |
0.01% |
|
Dec 03, 2012 |
1.6098 |
1.6023 |
1.6116 |
1.6021 |
0.47% |
Supporting factors for GBP, including relative central bank policy and AAA-related inflows into Gilts, should allow for continued strength despite a moderation in the magnitude of their support.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 03 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.50 |
50.40 |
50.40 |
|
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.7% |
4.1% |
5.4% |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
48.5 |
47.0 |
46.1 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
45.10 |
45.90 |
45.50 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.5 |
44.7 |
44.7 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.8 |
46.8 |
46.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
46.2 |
46.2 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
49.1 |
48.1 |
47.3 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
49.5 |
51.3 |
51.7 |
|
Dec. 04 |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
74.30K |
90.50K |
128.20K |
|
Dec. 05 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
50.2 |
51.1 |
50.6 |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction |
5.290% |
5.517% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-1.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
118K |
125K |
157K |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
2.9% |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
54.7 |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
Dec. 06 |
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
1.0% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-9.5B |
-8.8B |
-8.4B |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
3.9% |
0.9% |
-2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
380K |
395K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3205K |
3275K |
3305K |
|
Dec. 07 |
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.8% |
0.7% |
-2.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-1.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-3.0% |
-0.6% |
-3.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
-2.6% |
-0.5% |
-1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
146K |
93K |
138K |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
147K |
95K |
189K |
|
|
MXN |
Mexican CPI (YoY) |
4.18% |
4.34% |
4.60% |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
74.5 |
82.4 |
82.7 |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 1.6747 USD on April 28, 2011.
Average: 1.5751 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.4229 USD on May 20, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 11 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-7% |
-7% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-12.0 |
-15.7 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-42.5B |
-41.6B |
|
|
Dec. 12 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.9% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
7.0K |
10.1K |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
-147.5B |
-120.0B |
|
|
Dec. 13 |
08:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-16 |
-21 |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
07:58 |
EUR |
45.0 |
44.5 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
47.2 |
46.8 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
|
1.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 10 10:10 Norway
Dec 10 10:10 Slovakia
Dec 10 15:30 UK
Dec 10 16:30 Italy
Dec 11 09:30 Spain
Dec 11 10:10 Greece
Dec 11 10:15 Austria
Dec 11 10:30 Belgium
Dec 11 10:30 UK
Dec 11 18:00 US
Dec 12 10:10 Italy
Dec 12 10:10 Sweden
Dec 12 10:30 Swiss
Dec 12 16:30 US
Dec 13 01:30 Japan
Dec 13 09:30 Spain
Dec 13 10:10 Italy
Dec 13 10:30 UK
Dec 13 16:00 US
Dec 13 18:00 US
Dec 14 11:00 Belgium
Dec 14 15:30 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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