Gold Fundamental Forecast – January 11, 2017

4 months agoByJames Hyerczyk

Gold futures closed marginally higher on Tuesday after reaching a six-week high earlier in the session. The market was primarily underpinned by a weaker U.S. Dollar. The catalyst behind the strength this week has been concerns ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference since the elections in November.

February Comex Gold closed the session at $1185.50, up $0.60 or +0.05%.

In economic news, the NFIB Small Business Index came in at 105.8, beating the estimate at 99.6 and the previous 98.4. The JOLTS Job Openings report came in at 5.54 million, slightly below the 5.59 million estimate, however, more than the previous read of 5.45 million. Lastly, Final Wholesale Inventories rose 1.0%, higher than the expected and previous 0.9%.

Daily February Comex Gold


Wednesday will be another light report day with the main focus on Trump’s press conference. Traders will be listening for clues and details about his plan to rebuild America, cut taxes and loosen banking regulations. Unfortunately, traders may be disappointed because he may be asked questions about topics that have been in the news lately, including conflicts of interest, Russian hacking and the repealing of Obamacare.

Shortly after his election in November, Trump made several promises including spending as much as a trillion dollar on U.S. infrastructure. Since then Treasury yields have risen and the Dow is up about 9 percent. The dollar also rose, making gold a less desirable investment.

Some feel that Trump is not likely to deliver anything of substance since he has not been inaugurated into office yet. This will take place on January 20. Furthermore, it will be an open field for questioning. This means anything goes from the press corps so Trump may not even get a chance to answer questions about the economy. However, he is wildcard so he may say a few things that create volatility in the markets.

If there is enough volatility to trigger a stock market break, then investors are likely to sell stocks and buy Treasurys, the normal reaction to such an event. A drop in Treasury yields will take the dollar down also. This would likely increase demand for gold.

From the technical side, gold changed its trend to up on Tuesday when buyers took out the December 5 top at $1190.20. However, there wasn’t much of follow-through to the upside which suggests the move was triggered by buy stops rather than fresh buying. If buyers can sustain a move over $1193.40 then we could see another $30 rally over the near-term. If $1180.20 fails as support then gold may fall back to $1157.50.

More Forecasts

4 Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

The French elections pushed global markets to record highs and postponed investors’ concerns for another week. The Euro climbed versus the US dollar after a long time of consolidation as Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round put at ease the European political uncertainty. Safe haven assets prices also dropped, and currently the markets major concern … Continue reading 4 Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

Gold Monthly Forecast – May 2017

After posting a strong performance in the month of March when it managed to recover from its lows below 1200 and finished the month strongly above 1240, it had a much slower and consolidating month of April where its range was pretty low as the traders decided to give gold a break and decided to … Continue reading Gold Monthly Forecast – May 2017

North Korea’s Defiance of Trump Pushes Gold to Forefront

Gold is likely to be in focus this week after taking a backseat last week to the French elections, central bank meetings, and U.S. policy announcements. Pushing it back to the forefront will be the possibility of escalating military activity in North Korea based on events over the week-end. Demand for the safe-haven metal fell … Continue reading North Korea’s Defiance of Trump Pushes Gold to Forefront

Price of Gold – Fundamental Forecast, Week of May 1, 2017

Gold futures gapped lower at the start of the week and the market never looked back amid increased demand for higher-yielding assets. June Comex Gold futures closed the week at $1268.30, down $20.80 or -1.61%. Gold started the week by falling to a two-week low on Monday after the results of France’s presidential election first-round … Continue reading Price of Gold – Fundamental Forecast, Week of May 1, 2017

Gold weekly chart, May 01, 2017

Gold forecast for the week of May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

The gold markets gapped lower at the open on Monday, and broke down below the $1275 level. We fell from there, but started to see support near the $1260 level. Because of this, I believe that the buyers are coming back, so therefore I am bullish and I believe that the gold markets will reach … Continue reading Gold forecast for the week of May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

Gold daily chart, May 01, 2017

Gold Prices May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

Gold markets had a relatively quiet session on Friday, as we continue to bounce around the $1260 level. There is quite a bit of noise just below, extending all the way down to the $1240 level. Because of this, I’m looking for some type of supportive candle to start going long, and a break above … Continue reading Gold Prices May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

Expand Your Knowledge

Crude Oil

4 Commodities for 4 Seasons

The lifecycle of commodities play a role in the performance of many commodities that are produced globally.  While crude oil prices are driven by the supply of crude oil and the demand for products such as gasoline and heating oil, grains experience their greatest volatility ahead their harvests.  Coffee prices are affected by weather in … Continue reading 4 Commodities for 4 Seasons

Prices should remain robust.

Is There a Real-Estate Bubble?

As the S&P 500 index and other global equity bourses hit fresh all-time highs, it is important to evaluate whether the markets are getting ahead of themselves, specifically in the housing space, as the housing market meltdown was the catalyst which brought down the equity markets beginning in 2008. Could there possibly be another real-estate … Continue reading Is There a Real-Estate Bubble?


Marijuana – Is it Economic for You?

The long and windy road of legalizing Marijuana in U.S states begun some time ago, States currently with legalized possession for recreational use include: Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland (decriminalized 10g or less), Massachusetts, Minnesota (decriminalized), Nevada, New York (decriminalized unless open to public view), North Carolina (decriminalized 0.5oz or less), Oregon and Washington. In … Continue reading Marijuana – Is it Economic for You?

7 Reasons Why Women Trade Better Than Men

A hotly debated subject, particularly when considering the ratio of men to women on the trading floor and the investment banking’s attitude towards women, despite the best efforts of banks to create diversity and equality in the workplace. For the fewer women that are on the trading floors globally, there are certain attributes that bring … Continue reading 7 Reasons Why Women Trade Better Than Men

Crude Oil Affects Your Wallet

How Do Oil Prices Affect Your Wallet?

It is important for everyone to keep an eye on the live oil prices as it affects a large part of our life on a day to day basis. One of the main reasons for this fact is that unlike other commodities like gold, silver, diamond etc., oil is an essential commodity and considering its … Continue reading How Do Oil Prices Affect Your Wallet?

Can Le Pen Make France Great Again?

The Story of Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen, the president of the National Front, is not just a politician, but also a layer taking France by storm at the age of 48, young when compared with the Establishment. Sarkozy, Fillon and Hollande all 62 years of age with only center-left Macron her junior at the age of 39. Marine Le … Continue reading The Story of Marine Le Pen

See All

FX Empire - the company, employees, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable jointly or severally for any loss or damage as link result of reliance on the information provided on this website. The data contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate.
FX Empire may receive compensation from the companies featured on the network.

All prices herein are provided by market makers and not by exchanges. As such prices may not be accurate and they may differ from the actual market price. FX Empire bears no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as link result of using any data within the FX Empire.