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Gold News: Pullback Deepens from $4381.44 High with $4100.43 Support in Focus

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Oct 21, 2025, 13:24 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold Price Forecast

Gold Price Retreats from Record High as Traders Eye $4100.43 Support Ahead of CPI Data

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure on Tuesday, pulling back more than 3.50% after failing to extend Monday’s all-time high at $4381.44. The rejection at record territory triggered a round of profit-taking, with sellers gaining control into early session trade.

At 13:16 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4201.89, down $153.90 or -3.53%.

Market behavior points to a typical retracement after an aggressive rally, with traders now watching key Fibonacci retracement levels at $4162.93 and $4100.43 for near-term support.

If gold fails to hold $4100.43 — a confluence of the 50% retracement level and a major psychological handle — it could open the door for a deeper correction.

A break below that zone would bring the 50-day moving average at $3712.66 back into focus, though that level remains distant unless Friday’s inflation data surprises materially to the upside.

Yields Hold Steady While Focus Shifts to Fed Policy Setup

Treasury yields were mostly flat, reflecting cautious sentiment as markets await Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release — now one of the only major economic data points expected ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down 2.5 basis points to 3.963%, while the 2-year slipped to 3.451%. Traders are pricing in a growing probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, contingent on CPI showing continued disinflation.

With the government shutdown still partially freezing data releases, the CPI report has taken on outsized importance. Expectations call for a 3.1% year-over-year print for September, down from 3.7% in August. That would bolster the case for easing, especially as Fed officials begin pivoting their focus toward weakening labor market conditions.

Geopolitical Easing and Central Bank Demand Still Supportive for Gold

Gold’s long-term bullish narrative remains intact. The metal is up 63% on the year, driven by a blend of central bank accumulation, safe-haven inflows, and rising conviction around Fed rate cuts. Signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions also added to the cross-asset relief rally, with equities climbing in Asia and the dollar easing modestly.

Still, gold’s pace of ascent has drawn caution. “The speed is being a bit aggressive and as a result of that, we will get pullbacks each time we hit those fresh highs,” said WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that downside could be limited as sidelined investors wait for better entry points.

Gold Price Forecast: Pullback in Play, All Eyes on $4100.43

Short-term bias leans bearish as gold trades lower from record highs with downside targets at $4162.93 and $4100.43 now in play. A break of $4100.43 would mark a more serious correction and raise the probability of a test toward the 50-day moving average at $3712.66.

Friday’s CPI will be the key trigger — a softer print supports a rebound, but a hot number could extend the pullback and shift rate expectations, keeping pressure on gold into next week’s Fed decision.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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