Gold Price Forecast – Fed Easing Sets Stage for Gold to Surpass $4,000 by Year-End

Fed Watch Tool

The Fed delivered a 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday, and markets are now pricing in a roughly 92% probability of another cut next month, followed by a third in December (82.5%). However, easing policy while inflation remains elevated could prove to be a misstep—particularly if the labor market stays resilient. I believe gold is starting to sense that risk. 

Dollar Weekly

A while ago, I noted the potential for an extremely left-translated three-year cycle in the dollar. A decisive breakdown below the multi-year trendline would confirm that scenario and support much more downside into late 2027. A good example of an extremely left translated cycle occurred between 2001 and 2004.

Gold

Gold dipped following Wednesday’s Fed rate cut, as the 0.25% move had already been priced in. Now, markets are recalibrating for the likelihood of Trump replacing Powell with a “yes man” to pursue aggressive rate cuts next year. A push toward $4,000 is feasible by year-end if the Fed’s independence comes under threat.

Silver

Silver is maintaining ground above $40.00, and a run towards $45.00 is favored as long as prices don’t close below Wednesday’s Fed day low ($41.13). Ultimately, I see prices breaking above $50.00, but that might be a 2026 story.

Platinum Monthly

After years of consolidation, platinum has finally broken decisively above the 17-year trendline on the monthly chart. This breakout likely marks the beginning of a multi-year advance toward new all-time highs and, in my view, a return to at least parity with gold.

GDX to Gold Ratio

Despite the recent rally in miners, the GDX-to-Gold ratio remains below its 2016 and 2020 highs, suggesting miners still have significant ground to make up. In other words, gold miners remain undervalued compared to gold from a historical perspective. A major bull market breakout will be confirmed once the ratio breaks decisively above the 0.021 level.

GDX

Miners hit fresh highs after Wednesday’s rate cut, supporting the potential for more upside. Prices broke above the 2023/2024 trendline late last month, registering an accelerated uptrend. Year-to-date GDX is up nearly 110%.

GDXJ

Junior gold miners entered an accelerated uptrend in late August and are up 112% this year.

SILJ

Silver juniors are testing the trendline that has capped prices since late 2023. A strong breakout above $22.00 would suggest they, too, have entered an accelerated bull phase.

AEM

About a year ago, I noted the depth of the base of the 4-year rounded bottom supported a $150+ target for AEM. I didn’t think we’d get here this fast, but here we are. With prices up over 110% this year, a pullback is likely at some point.

In Closing

Metals and miners are now in accelerated bull markets, as the U.S. dollar faces significant downside risk heading into the end of the decade. Over the longer term, we see gold potentially appreciating toward $10,000, with silver moving well above $100. After years of underperformance, gold miners are finally attracting strong bids—and this trend may be just getting started.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.