Gold Price Forecast – Our $8,000 Target Was Likely Too Conservative

In our Big Picture Gold Update, we forecast a move toward $8,000+ and highlighted that this could be one of the final opportunities to purchase gold below $2,000. Prices are approaching that target sooner than expected, and levels in the $12,000 to $15,000 range are increasingly plausible.

Source: https://x.com/GoldPredict/status/1703197176938021275

Current Analysis

Gold

Gold dropped $1,200 in three trading days, yet it never closed below the 50-day EMA or registered a weekly swing high, confirming that the broader uptrend remains firmly in place.

We expect new all-time highs in the second quarter, likely topping in May, with the risk of a 1979-style blow-off rally above $8,000, potentially catalyzed by a significant escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

Silver

It appears that a sufficient number of silver contracts were rolled into May, easing any near-term delivery pressures. That said, persistent disruptions in Mexico are straining the silver supply chain, and COMEX could face growing difficulty securing metal to rebuild inventories.

Technically, silver needs to break above and hold above $100 for more than a week to reestablish upside momentum and position the market for fresh highs in the second quarter. Should gold enter a parabolic advance toward $8,000+, silver would likely respond with an explosive move of its own, potentially exceeding $200 by May.

Platinum

Platinum needs a series of progressive closes above the January breakdown gap at $2,620 to reestablish the uptrend.

GDX

Miners finished above $113.50, and one more strong close above this level would support a medium-term target near $140.

GDXJ

One more strong close in juniors above $152.25 would support an upside breakout, with a medium-term target around $190.

SILJ

Silver juniors closed above $37.50, supporting more upside. Progressive closes above $41.10 would promote a measured target near $55.00.

AEM

Agnico Eagle remains one of the best-performing miners, already breaking out to new highs. The measured target is between $270 & $275.

NVDA

Nvidia reported another blowout quarter, significantly exceeding both revenue and EPS estimates, while also raising its forward earnings guidance. Despite the strong results, the stock failed to rally and instead finished down 5.55%, as the market largely shrugged off the news.

Over the past six months, prices have traded mostly within a tight, slightly upward-sloping range. A decisive breakdown below the 200-day moving average ($174), followed by continued weakness under $170, would support a bearish technical breakdown. If Nvidia were to begin faltering, I suspect it could weigh heavily on the broader market as well.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has been forming a rounded top since September, with a breakdown below 6,500 needed for confirmation. If Nvidia slips under $170, I suspect the broader market could begin to roll over in sympathy.

To invalidate the rounded-top scenario, I would need to see a decisive and sustained breakout above 7,000. Otherwise, the likelihood of a 10% to 20% pullback into mid-year is increasing, in my view.

Conclusion

The primary uptrends in gold, silver, and the mining shares remain firmly in place, reinforcing the case for fresh highs into the second quarter. A speculative blow-off phase—carrying gold above $8,000 and silver beyond $200—cannot be ruled out.

At the same time, the broader equity market appears vulnerable to a 10%–20% correction into mid-year, which could create interim volatility and short-term downside pressure in the metals complex.

Looking further ahead, our broader thesis remains unchanged: we expect gold and silver to trend substantially higher into 2030, followed by the risk of a prolonged global economic downturn lasting to 2036.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.