Gold Price Forecast: Pullback to $2,800 Likely Before Fresh Highs

Fed Watch Tool

The Federal Reserve held rates steady in May, pointing to continued uncertainty around inflation, especially in light of tariff-related pressures. I had anticipated a rebound in equities in May, followed by a reversal as markets begin to recognize that rate cuts are not imminent. Currently, there’s a 92% probability the Fed remains on hold in June, and a 63% chance of no cuts in July. If this thesis plays out, it should start exerting downward pressure on stock prices.

Fear & Greed

The Fear & Greed Index has climbed to its highest level of 2025, officially entering the “greed” zone. This marks a sharp shift from the extreme fear reading of just 3 recorded on April 8th. Market sentiment now appears increasingly complacent, and such elevated optimism could signal that the recent rebound in equities is nearing exhaustion.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 301. Once values enter the minimum cycle bottoming, we will look for the next low.

 Gold

Gold peaked within our projected cycle timing window and has entered a multi-month corrective phase. Corrections typically unfold in one of two ways: either sharply and quickly (“the elevator down”) or gradually and steadily (“the stairs”). Based on current trends, our analysis supports a stair-step retreat towards $2,800, potentially lasting into mid-year given the current pace of decline.

Silver

Silver is currently consolidating and must hold support around $31.65 to avoid triggering the next leg lower. Overall, we expect silver to decline alongside gold into mid-year, potentially bottoming in the $26.50 to $28.50 range. Looking ahead, our medium-term outlook calls for a breakout above $35.00 later this year, which could set the stage for a retest of the $50.00 level in the first half of 2026.

 

GDX

Gold miners topped out after hitting the trendline in April, as we had forecasted. At the time, we advised investors to avoid chasing the breakout that followed the tariff-related volatility, noting it came too late in the cycle and carried a high risk of being a bull trap. After a multi-month correction phase, we anticipate a strong buying opportunity emerging later this year.

GDXJ

Junior gold miners peaked in April, and prices are correcting. The long-term setup remains bullish, and we expect prices to outperform GDX over the coming years.

GDX vs. GLD Ratio

The GDX-to-GLD ratio remains in bear market territory, indicating that miners are still significantly undervalued relative to the price of gold. From a technical standpoint, miners will remain in a bearish posture until the ratio breaks above the key resistance level near 0.235, last reached in 2016 and again in 2020.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a robust bull market, with prices projected to reach $8,000+ in the coming years.

The current pullback is a standard correction within a broader uptrend, which is anticipated to make fresh highs next year.

Silver and mining stocks have lagged but are expected to catch up, potentially setting new all-time highs in the upcoming quarters.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.