Gold prices are rising within the broader range, but I deem this is all part of a broader consolidation.
Unless the dollar breaks sharply lower, I don’t see gold breaking above $1800 anytime soon. If my consolidation theory is correct, gold could drop back towards $1450 – $1525 by August/September.
Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 378, and we are once again in the minimum cycle topping.
CONSOLIDATION CHART
Gold appears to be in a high-level consolidation similar to what we saw in 2016 and 2018. If correct, then prices will remain rangebound (between $1650 – $1800) through June and into July before finally dropping into the next 6-month low. It would take a decisive breakout above $1800 to support a run to $1900 – $2000.
GOLD BIG PICTURE
The larger 10-year pattern in gold suggests prices may consolidate below $1800 for several months before finally breaking out above $2000 in 2021 or 2022.
I view any drop in gold back towards $1500 as a “back-the-truck-up” opportunity.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.