Gold Price Forecast – The Next Buying Opportunity is Almost Here

The correction that began in September is nearly complete, and gold should bottom in the opening days of December. The current pullback is nothing more than a normal cycle correction. Once gold bottoms, we expect an advance to $1600+ in the first quarter of next year. 
AG Thorson

The 6-Month Cycle

First, I’d like to start by explaining the 6-month cycle in gold. Prices tend to form tradable lows about every 6-months – think of it like breathing. In bear markets, the 6-month lows work progressively lower – In bull markets, progressively higher.

After a prolonged basing pattern, gold exploded above $1400 in June 2019 and established a new bull market. The current pullback is the first 6-month cycle correction in a new bull market. And in my opinion, an outstanding buying opportunity.

In my article, The Odds Favor One More Decline, I cited the potential for a top in the opening days of November. That forecast was timely as prices began breaking lower the very next day. The short-term pattern appears to be setting up for one final decline into early December.

Daily Gold Chart

After a brief consolidation, gold is now set up for the final decline into a 6-month low. All we need is a little downside follow-through below $1455 (possibly next week). The 200-day MA is the ideal target as it crosses $1400.

I’ve outlined a +/- $20.00 target box in the chart above. If prices don’t bottom during the first week of December, then I’ll look for a bottom around the December 11th Fed announcement. I may have to adjust the target once I see the initial reaction lower from the current consolidation.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator (GCI) was explicitly designed to navigate the 6-Month cycle in gold. When it drops below 100 (currently 103), it means prices have met the minimum requirements for a bottom — the lower the number, the better the buying opportunity. A test of $1400 in early December should send the GCI below 50 and into maximum bottoming.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit

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