Gold Price Forecast – The Odds Favor One More Decline

According to my cycle work, gold needs to break the October $1465 low to complete the intermediate degree correction that began in September. The October consolidation could lead to a November breakdown.
AG Thorson
Comex Gold


October saw 128,000 jobs versus the expected 75,000, despite the GM strike. The August numbers were revised upward significantly to 219,000 from 168,000, and September jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.

Today’s report should have sent gold prices sharply lower – something doesn’t add up. Perhaps the weaker than expected ISM manufacturing numbers are keeping gold afloat. Whatever the case, the probabilities for a December rate cut plummeted from 22.1% to 12.5% on the news.


There is still a decent chance that gold prices will roll over and break the $1465 low, but those odds lessen each day gold remains above $1500.

I’ve noticed gold elects trend changes at the beginning of a month.

  • July 1st, prices formed a short-term low at $1384.70
  • August 1st, prices formed an interim low at $1412.10
  • September 4th, gold peaked at $1566.20
  • October 1st, prices created a lesser cycle low at $1465

The next potential turning point could arrive within the next few days. If gold doesn’t turn lower by the end of next week, I’ll begin looking higher instead of lower.

Overall, I believe gold is in a new bull market, and prices are heading much higher. For my long-term forecast please read, Gold Price Forecast for The Next Decade.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.