Gold Price Forecast – The Odds Favor One More Decline

According to my cycle work, gold needs to break the October $1465 low to complete the intermediate degree correction that began in September. The October consolidation could lead to a November breakdown.
AG Thorson
Comex Gold

EMPLOYMENT REPORT

October saw 128,000 jobs versus the expected 75,000, despite the GM strike. The August numbers were revised upward significantly to 219,000 from 168,000, and September jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.

Today’s report should have sent gold prices sharply lower – something doesn’t add up. Perhaps the weaker than expected ISM manufacturing numbers are keeping gold afloat. Whatever the case, the probabilities for a December rate cut plummeted from 22.1% to 12.5% on the news.

GOLD DAILY CHART

There is still a decent chance that gold prices will roll over and break the $1465 low, but those odds lessen each day gold remains above $1500.

I’ve noticed gold elects trend changes at the beginning of a month.

  • July 1st, prices formed a short-term low at $1384.70
  • August 1st, prices formed an interim low at $1412.10
  • September 4th, gold peaked at $1566.20
  • October 1st, prices created a lesser cycle low at $1465

The next potential turning point could arrive within the next few days. If gold doesn’t turn lower by the end of next week, I’ll begin looking higher instead of lower.

Overall, I believe gold is in a new bull market, and prices are heading much higher. For my long-term forecast please read, Gold Price Forecast for The Next Decade.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit https://goldpredict.com/

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