Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – April 12, 2019 Forecast

Gold is trading slightly higher after an early session surge failed to attract enough buyers to extend the rally. The market is trading inside yesterday’s wide range. This suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

On the bullish side, gold is being underpinned by weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. This is being driven by a surge in the Euro, which is related to a large currency transaction. It is not being driven by a change in the fundamentals.

Keeping a lid on gold prices are firmer U.S. Treasury yields and increased demand for higher risk assets. Higher yields are being supported by strong U.S. economic data from Thursday, which dampened concerns over a slower economy. Stocks are being driven higher by better-than-expected earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase.

At 13:29 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1295.00, up $1.70 or +0.14%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1284.90 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1330.80.

If $1292.90 is taken out then $1314.70 will become a new main top. If this occurs then a move through this top will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is up. A trade through $1284.90 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside. A move through $1314.70 will reaffirm the minor uptrend.

The main range is $1330.80 to $1284.90. Its retracement zone at $1307.90 to $1313.30 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on April 10 at $1314.70.

The short-term range is $1284.90 to $1314.70. Its retracement zone at $1299.80 to $1296.30 is the nearest downside target. The market is currently trading on the weak side of this retracement zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1295.00, the direction of the June Comex gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1296.90 to $1296.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1296.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the short-term 50% level at $1299.90, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at $1302.80. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into the main 50% level at $1307.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1296.30 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the next uptrending Gann angle at $1290.90. This is followed by another uptrending Gann angle at $1287.90. This is the last potential support angle before the major 50% level at $1285.50 and the main bottom at $1284.90.