James Hyerczyk
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Comex Gold
Comex Gold

Comex gold futures are trading higher shortly before the New York opening. The market is being supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar. Gains are being limited by expectations of higher interest rates and worries about an escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China.

At 1138 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1198.80, up $4.90 or +0.41%.

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Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to a report on July orders for durable goods at 1230 GMT, but the major event is a speech due at 1400 GMT from Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming central bankers’ symposium. Investors will be watching Powell’s words closely for any clues on the pace of the interest-rate hikes or his insights on the impact of tariffs, and U.S. economic growth.

Earlier in the week, the Fed minutes showed support for a further interest-rate hike in the near term, but also revealed concerns that escalating trade wars could harm the U.S. economy.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1208.40 will change the main trend to up. This will turn $1189.50 into a new main bottom.

The main range is $1244.70 to $1167.10. Its retracement zone at $1205.90 to $1215.10 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally earlier in the week at $1208.40.

The short-term range is $1167.10 to $1208.40. Its retracement zone at $1187.80 to $1182.90 is the primary downside target. Today’s early selling pressure came close to hitting this zone, but the selling stopped at $1189.50. Nonetheless, we’re going to continue to watch this zone for aggressive counter-trend buyers.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1199.00.

A sustained move over $1199.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for them to take a run at $1205.90, followed closely by $1208.40.

Taking out $1208.40 could trigger a surge into a resistance cluster at $1215.10. Crossing to the strong side of this cluster will put gold in a bullish position.

A sustained move under $1199.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the uptrending Gann angle at $1191.10. This angle provided support earlier in the session. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term retracement zone at $1187.80 to $1182.90.

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