Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 27, 2018 Forecast

Gold futures are trading lower but inside Friday’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. Based on data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of August 21, hedge funds and money managers are still net short the market despite last week’s $29.10 rally. This tells me that the “little guy” got stuffed trying to short the market at the wrong time.

At 1156 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1212.30, down $1.00 or -0.09%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The lack of follow-through to the upside today, following Friday’s rally, suggests the move may have been driven by buy stops rather than new buyers.

A trade through $1215.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1189.50 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $1244.70 to $1167.10. Its retracement zone at $1205.90 to $1215.10 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $1189.50 to $1215.40. Its 50% level or pivot at $1202.50 is important to today’s intraday movement.

The intermediate range is $1167.10 to $1215.40. Its retracement zone at $1191.30 to $1185.60 is another potential support zone. Inside this zone is the main bottom at $1189.50.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1215.10.

A sustained move under $1215.10 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the main 50% level at $1205.90, followed by the pivot at $1202.50. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of these levels.

If $1202.50 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at $1195.10.

A sustained move over $1215.10 will signal that the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a pop into a long-term downtrending Gann angle at $1219.70.

Overtaking $1219.70 and a steep uptrending Gann angle at $1223.10 will put gold in a bullish position with the next target angle coming in at $1232.20.