Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 7, 2017 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the Comex opening. The market is trading inside Friday’s range under light volume conditions. This indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

It could be investors waiting for more news to confirm the U.S. Dollar’s strength that is causing the lackluster trade. This will come in the form of higher U.S. Treasury yields. Increased demand for higher risk assets like stocks is also likely to keep the downside pressure on gold.

I don’t think gold will have the power to rally on its own unless there is a major geopolitical events or a steep drop in the stock market.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1280.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1249.40 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $1305.50 to $1211.10. Its retracement zone is $1258.30 to $1269.40. Inside this retracement zone is a short-term retracement zone at $1264.90 to $1261.20. The market is currently testing these retracement zones.

Another range is $1211.10 to $1280.30. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $1245.70 to $1237.50 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1262.20, I expect to see a choppy, trade until the market can clear away from the retracement levels.

Any rally is likely to be labored because of potential resistance at $1264.90, $1269.40, $1272.30, $1276.30 and $1278.30. The main top at $1280.30 is also in the way. This type of set-up means gold is going to have a hard time rallying given the current average daily volume. There is going to have to be a major event to takeout all of these resistance levels before we’ll see a breakout to the upside.

On the downside, the first two targets come in at $1261.20 and $1258.30. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the first major target an uptrending angle at $1251.10. This is followed by $1249.40 and $1245.70.

Simply stated, unless there is a major news event, gold is going to have a hard rallying. The way of least resistance is down.