If the volume is strong enough, we could see an acceleration to the upside on a breakout over $1345.00.
Gold futures finished higher on Tuesday mostly in reaction to weakness in the U.S. Dollar, which fell to a fresh three-year low against a basket of major currencies. Increased demand for higher risk assets, driven by strong earnings and the end of the three-day government shutdown, may have limited gains.
April Comex Gold futures settled at $1341.70, up $4.80 or +0.36%.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1345.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this move generates enough upside momentum then we could see an eventual test of the September 8 main top at $1365.80.
A new main bottom was confirmed on Tuesday at $1324.30. A trade through this bottom will change the main trend to down.
The main range is $1365.80 to $1238.30. Its retracement zone at $1317.10 to $1302.10. This zone should be considered support. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the gold market.
If there is a change in trend to down, the retracement zone is likely to stop the first wave of selling pressure.
The market will weaken further if $1302.10 fails as support. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the major 50% to 61.8% zone at $1290.20 to $1272.30.
If the volume is strong enough, we could see an acceleration to the upside on a breakout over $1345.00.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.