Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Longer-Term Direction Controlled by $1300.60 and $1315.60

Gold futures edged higher early Friday in reaction to softer U.S. Treasury yields, but the market couldn’t hold on to its earlier gains due to a stronger U.S. Dollar. A drop in demand for commodities due to a steep sell-off in crude oil as well as a plunge in the Euro and British Pound also helped limit gains.

August Comex Gold settled at $1309.00, down $0.80 or -0.06%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1332.40. A move through $1286.80 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This move shifted momentum to the upside.

The main range is $1251.90 to $1379.30. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $1315.60 to $1300.60. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the gold market.

The short-term range is $1332.40 to $1286.80. Its 50% level or pivot is $1309.60. This level is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close and the price action, the direction of the gold market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1309.60.

A sustained move under $1309.60 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a break into $1300.60. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level, but if it fails, look for a possible retest of $1286.80.

A sustained move over $1309.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into $1315.60. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target coming in at $1332.40.

Basically, we’re looking for a strong upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1315.60. The strong downside bias could resume on a sustained move under $1300.60.