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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold futures are drifting lower on Thursday, pressured by a slightly stronger U.S. Dollar as progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine offset worries over spiking coronavirus cases in the United States and hopes of more stimulus.

COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc could be ready for U.S. authorization and distribution within weeks, setting the stage for inoculation to begin as soon as this year, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said on Wednesday.

At 07:41 GMT, December Comex gold futures are trading $1862.70, down $11.20 or -0.60%.

Later today at 13:30 GMT, gold traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report. This will help them assess health of the economy.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1848.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1966.10. This is highly unlikely but there is room for a short-covering rally on a breakout over $1907.10.

The main range is $1690.10 to $2089.20. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $1889.70 to $1842.60. Gold is in a position to close inside this range for an eighth consecutive session.

The minor range is $1966.10 to $1848.00. Its 50% level at $1907.10 is resistance and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trading inside a $47.10 range for eight session typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. However, gold isn’t going to go anywhere without a catalyst.

A bullish catalyst such as the announcement of stimulus talks could launch a rally over $1889.70, while a bearish catalyst such as a sudden improvement in the number of coronavirus cases could trigger a steep break under $1842.60.

We’re just going to have to wait it out.

Side Notes

The best scenario for longer-term bulls will be a spike to the downside, or a shake out of the weaker longs then the announcement of new stimulus talks from the government and another round of stimulus from the Fed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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