Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – September 15, 2017 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading slightly higher as we approach the regular session opening. The market opened higher and continued the move in reaction to another North Korean missile launch over Japan. However, the buying quickly dried up and prices retreated back to nearly unchanged. The early price action was the typical knee-jerk response into safe haven assets.

The price action the rest of the session is likely to be determined by risk sentiment. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. Dollar and firm equities will likely pressure gold. Renewed demand for safe haven assets will be supportive.

In other news, traders will get a chance to react to U.S. Retail Sales data, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories. Most of the reaction today is likely to come from the retail sales report, but only if there is a major surprise. Core retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% and retail sales, about 0.1%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Momentum had been trending lower since September 8, however, yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom may have shifted momentum back to up.

A trade through $1319.50 will negate the chart pattern and signal a shift in momentum to down. A trade through $1302.30 will change the main trend to down.

The market is being controlled by three retracement zones.

The main retracement zone at $1321.90 to $1312.30 is support. This zone stopped the selling at $1319.50 on Thursday.

The intermediate retracement zone is $1332.40 to $1325.30. This zone is currently being tested. It could become support if the market rallies.

The short-term range is $1362.40 to $1319.50. Its retracement zone at $1341.00 to $1346.00 is the primary upside target. A downtrending angle passes through this zone at $1342.40, making it a valid upside target.

Aggressive, counter-trend sellers may come in to stop a rally into $1341.00 to $1346.00. Trend traders are going to try to take out this zone in an effort to make $1319.50 a new main bottom.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1331.60 and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1332.40.

A sustained move over $1332.40 will signal the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into a resistance cluster at $1341.00 to $1342.40. Overtaking this zone could drive the market into $1346.00 and $1352.40.

A sustained move under $1332.40 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the Fibonacci level at $1325.30, followed by a support cluster at $1322.30 to $1321.90.

If $1319.50 fails as support then we could see an acceleration into a major Fibonacci level at $1312.30, followed by a pair of uptrending angles at $1309.30 and $1307.20.

Look for the bullish tone to resume on a sustained move over $1332.40 and for the intraday selling to continue on a sustained move under $1332.40.