Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rallies for 5th Consecutive Session

Gold prices rallied for a 5^th consecutive trading session, driving higher by a declining dollar.  US yields have also continued to decline, with the 10-year hitting 3.05, after pushing up as high as 3.20% just 6-days ago.  It appears that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast and the New York Fed GDP forecast have both ticked lower.  Higher interest rates, and trade tariffs are weighing on confidence. In fact the National Association of Home Builders monthly confidence index tumbled to a 2-year low today.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices rose for a 5^th consecutive trading session. Prices pushed through former support now resistance near the 20-day moving average at 1,222. Target resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the October highs at 1,243. Support below the 20-day moving average is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,211.  Short term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic recently generated a crossover buy signal and is surging higher. The current reading of 56, is in the middle of the neutral range. Momentum as reflected by the MACD is poised to turn positive as the MACD line is just above to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line the 9-day moving average of the MACD line.

The NAHB Reports a Drop in Homebuilder Confidence

The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index plunged eight points to 60 in November. This is the lowest level in more than 2-years. Several issues continue to erode confidence including expensive labor, scarcity of land, higher lumber prices due to tariffs and rising mortgage rates. In November, the sub-gauge of current conditions fell seven points to 67, the tracker of expected future conditions plunged 10 points to 65, and the gauge of buyer traffic was down eight points, to 45.