Gold Price Prediction – Gold Whipsaws on Chinese Geopolitics

Gold prices surged ahead of the North American open on Tuesday, as Hong Kong protestors swarmed the airport, driving the closure of Departing Flights. Prices then whipsawed and moved lower as the Trump Administration announced several items that were scheduled for a September 1, tariff to be delayed until December 1, 2019. Later in the session the Chinese government announced that it was sending troops to Hong Kong. In Europe, the ZEW readings came in weaker than expected while jobs data in the UK came out stronger than expected.

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Technical Analysis

 

Gold prices whipsawed and appeared to be breaking out, but the strong move lower led to consolidation. Resistance is now seen near the March 2013 highs at 1,616. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,474. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal in overbought territory. The fast stochastic is flattening which is likely to lead to consolidation. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 85 above the overbought trigger level of 80 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is positive but turning neutral as the MACD histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidating for gold prices.

European Sentiment Data Drops

European ZEW sentiment data was reported on Tuesday which disappointed investors.   In Germany, current situation tumbled to -13.5 versus expectations that it would move to -6.3, while expectations fell to -44.1 vs. -28.0 expected.  Eurozone expectations sank to -43.6 from -20.3 in July.  These readings suggest the economy continues to weaken in Q3.  The ECB is now set to ease rates which would could weigh on the Euro. US yields continued to move lower, which helped the dollar ease which could assist in the rally in gold prices.