Gold Price Prediction – Prices Ease Despite Weak US Employment Data

Private payrolls come in softer than expected
David Becker

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday and were unable to pierce through resistance levels, despite a weaker than expected private payroll report released on Wednesday by ADP. The dollar moved higher after initially declining in the wake of the weaker than expected private jobs report. US yields also moved higher, helping to buoy the greenback, paving the way for lower gold prices.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices eased on Wednesday after testing resistance near the the 50-day moving average near 1,482. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,463. Additional support is an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,454 and then the November lows at 1,443. Short term momentum remains positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal, and continues to accelerate higher. The current trajectory points to higher prices. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Private Employment Disappoints

Private employment slowed in November, with payrolls increasing by just 67,000, according to ADP and Moody’s Analytics. The number was well below expectations that private jobs would increase by 150,000. This comes ahead of Friday’s government payroll report which is forecast to come in at 187,000 jobs. November’s jobs growth was a sharp decline from the 121,000 in October, which was revised down from an initially reported 125,000. Goods-producing industries lost 18,000 jobs for the month.

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