Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Lower Despite Falling Greenback

Gold prices and continue to consolidate sideways despite a declining US dollar. US yields also moved lower following a softer than expected US retail sales report. Import prices unexpectedly fell in October as the cost of petroleum products and a range of other goods declined, suggesting inflation could remain muted for a while. The Fed’s Powell was on the tape on Tuesday saying that rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices edged lower after testing resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,894. The weekly chart of gold is forming a bull flag continuation pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Support is seen near the October lows at 1,850. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The fast stochastic has rebounded from oversold levels below 20 up to 31, which reflects accelerating positive momentum. Medium-term momentum is neutral and poised to turn positive as the  MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index looks like it is about to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

US Retail Sales Miss

US retail sales increased less than expected in October according to the Commerce Department. Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, compared to expectations that they would increase by 0.5%. Data for September was revised down to show sales surging 1.6% instead of shooting up 1.9% as previously reported. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales nudged up 0.1% after a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in September.