Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rally as Momentum Turns Positive

Gold prices continued to rally on Friday but were unable to push through trend line resistance.  The dollar moved lower, and U.S. yields eased slightly despite tighter than normal jobs date released by the Labor Department. The quit rate of the JOLTS report, hit an all-time high, despite the total number of jobs available declining slightly.

Technical analysis

Gold prices broke out of a 5-month on Thursday but was unable to break through trend line resistance near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,866. Target resistance is seen near the June highs at 1916. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average which means a short-term up trend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as prices are overbought. The fast stochastic generates a crossover sell signal. Prices are overbought as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 95, well above the overbought trigger level of 80. Medium-term momentum has also turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Quit Rates Surge

The Labor Department reported that in the United States, the total number of quits rose by 164,000 in September to a record-high 4.4 million. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report showed that the number of available positions slipped to 10.4 million, but remained near a record high. The quits rate, or percentage of workers leaving their jobs, was 3%, also an all-time high.