Trade deficit rises to the highest on record
Gold prices continued to move higher despite a small rebound in the dollar. U.S. yields were higher, with the 10-year yield hitting 3-year highs and the 2-year yield hitting a pre-pandemic high. The German yield 2-year yield pulled back, putting pressure on the EUR/USD, which generated some mild headwinds for the yellow metal. The U.S. reported a record trade deficit as surging imports outpaced rising exports.
Gold prices rallied slightly and remained rangebound. Prices remain above support near the 50-day moving average at 1,804. Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near $1,856. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index has generated a crossover buy signal. This situation occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory pointing to higher prices.
An increase in imports led to a rise in the U.S. trade deficit, which increased 27% in 2021. The deficit rose to an all-time high of $859.1 billion. The deficit was at $676.7 billion in 2020. The goods deficit shot up 18.3% to a record $1.1 trillion last year. Imports of goods hit an all-time high of $1.8 trillion. Food imports were the highest on record as were those of capital, consumer and other goods. Robust import growth overshadowed a sharp rebound in exports. Goods exports surged 23.3% to a record $1.8 trillion.
David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.