Gold Surge on Iran Strikes: Can War Risk Send Gold to $6,500, Silver to $150?

Gold (XAU) prices opened higher on Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched major strikes on Iran and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This event dramatically bumped up geopolitical risk and global uncertainty. Gold surged to $5,390 at market open, with volatility being very strong. Investors rushed into gold as safe haven asset because of this escalation.

The fight soon escalated with missile strikes from Iran. Markets are now afraid of longer and more unstable conflict. These conditions indicate that gold prices will remain elevated until there is any de-escalation.

Structural Drivers Support Gold’s Outlook Beyond Geopolitics

Inflation data is also providing another level of support for gold. U.S. producer prices rose higher than expected in January, which indicates that inflation may pick up in coming months. The chart below shows that the US producer prices increased 0.5% MOM in January 2026. Moreover, prices of services also increased 0.8%, which is the most since July. Higher inflation lowers real yields and makes gold more attractive as a hedge.

The escalating U.S.-Iran tensions will likely boost oil prices which could further lift inflation expectations and support gold prices. The chart below shows that the inflation expectations have been high since the escalation worsened in 2025.

At the same time, investors will pay special attention to U.S. labor market data such as the ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims, and the non-farm payrolls report. Weak labor data would strengthen rate cut expectations and further increase gold demand.

Silver (XAG) tends to lag gold during the early phase of crisis but tends to follow during the safe-haven rally. Therefore, continued geopolitical risk and the prospects of monetary policy easing could eventually boost silver prices along with gold in the sessions ahead.

Gold Bullish Structure Signals Upside Toward $6,500

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is trading within ascending broadening wedge pattern. The same structure also forms an ascending triangle pattern, which was broken in December 2025. A retracement back toward the support of the ascending triangle at $4,300 has produced a strong bottom and initiated a strong surge toward $5,600.

Since the gold price has broken $5,090, prices are now looking toward $5,600 as the immediate resistance. However, the escalating geopolitical crisis will likely push above $5,600 and open the door toward $6,500. The price is trading above the 50-day and 200-day SMA, whereby bullish momentum will likely continue in the gold market.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows a strong bullish formation above $4,400. The consolidation between $4,770 and $5,100, followed by the breakout above $5,100 indicates a surge towards $5,600 in the next few days. A break above $5,600 will open the door to a surge towards $6,500.

Silver Bullish Structure Signals Upside Toward $150

The silver price has formed a strong bottom above the major support of $64 and produced a bullish hammer candle above this level. After producing a bullish hammer candle, the silver price has formed a strong base pattern above the minor support of $72.

The retest of the $72 support on 17 February 2026 triggered a strong rebound, which suggests that the silver price will likely continue to surge towards the record level of $120. The strong volatility in the precious metals market and the increase in safe-haven demand indicate that the silver price will likely break $120 in 2026 and move towards $150.

The short-term price action for silver also shows strong bullish price action, as seen in the 4-hour chart below. It is observed that the silver price has been trading within ascending broadening pattern since September 2025.

The formation of the cup-and-handle pattern in the last quarter of 2025 has initiated a strong surge to $120. However, the strong correction from $120 toward the support at $64 has formed another cup-and-handle pattern, which broke above $92 last week.

This breakout suggests the next immediate resistance in silver will likely be $120. A break above $120 will likely push the price to $150.

Bottom Line

Gold and silver continue to be supported by rising geopolitical tensions, signals of inflation and bullish technical structures. Investors are still finding safety in gold and the price remains near recent highs. A break above $5,600 could clear the way for $6,500. At the same time, strong central bank demand, ETF inflows and expectations of easier monetary policy strengthen the long-term uptrend.

Silver has a similar constructive setup with a strong base above $64 and bullish patterns to $120 and $150. As long as the geopolitical risks remain high and the macro environment is conducive to safe-haven assets, both gold and silver are likely to continue their upward trajectory in the sessions to come.

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