Gold vs. Bitcoin: Is BTC Forming a Long-Term Bottom as Momentum Shifts?

The battle between gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical stage as the two assets respond to changing macro conditions and geopolitical threats. During uncertainty, gold has been strong, but Bitcoin is trying to regain a major long-term support. This development follows Bitcoin to gold ratio that indicates a possible reversal after months of declining trend. Investors are watching the ability of Bitcoin to recover and be better than gold in the upcoming cycle.

Is a Long-Term Bottom Forming Near Key Support?

Bitcoin price is developing a strong bullish price action at the long-term support area of the ascending broadening wedge pattern. This support area of $50,000 to $60,000 was discussed multiple times in the last updates.

Now, the price is forming a strong bottom at this support zone, which indicates a potential upside move in Bitcoin during the next few weeks.

This ascending broadening wedge pattern was developed from December 2022 to October 2025, whereby the rounding top pattern from June 2025 to November 2025 triggered a strong drop. This drop pushed the prices to the long-term support zone.

A strong rebound above $50,000–$60,000 and then the formation of a rounding bottom is a bullish signal. This bullish signal indicates that the price will likely recover above $75,000 and move towards $95,000.

The immediate resistance after breaking $75,000 is $80,000–$85,000. A break above $85,000 will move Bitcoin to $95,000. The recovery from this support indicates that Bitcoin is forming a base and preparing for a strong move in Q3 and Q4 2026.

Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Analysis: Is Bitcoin Forming a Long-Term Bottom?

Ratio Support Signals Bottom Formation in Bitcoin

The strength in the Bitcoin market at the $50,000 to $60,000 support zone is also observed using the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This ratio shows that when it reached 12 in March 2026, the gold price hit $4,100 and Bitcoin hit $60,000. This situation indicates that both assets have hit the long-term support zones when the ratio hit major support.

After hitting $4,100, the gold price rebounded higher above the $4,800 zone, while Bitcoin is now attempting to recover above the $75,000 area.

This recovery in both assets indicates that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio will likely accelerate higher towards the 40 level in the next few months. A break above 40 in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio will likely spark strong surge in Bitcoin prices.

The recent drop in the ratio began when gold broke the key level of $3,500 in August 2025. At the same time, the Bitcoin price peaked at $126,000 when the ratio reached a high in August 2025. The subsequent surge in gold prices to $5,600 and the correction in Bitcoin prices to $60,000 pushed the ratio to 12. Now this cycle is changing as gold and Bitcoin are now turning from their respective support zones.

Technical Structure Points to Upside in Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio

Another strong development in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is observed using the ascending channel pattern, which shows that March 2026 was a pivotal month. This pivot is evident on the monthly chart which shows the first reversal candle since August 2025. This reversal indicates that the ratio may likely trade towards 35 to 40, if Bitcoin holds the 50,000 level.

It is interesting to note that the weekly chart of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio also shows strong long-term support at 12-13. A recovery above this level suggests the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may be forming a bottom. However, a break below 12 in the ratio will likely push it to the 9 level, which will suggest further downside in Bitcoin prices.

The RSI is also extremely oversold, which shows exhaustion in the ratio and indicates that BTC prices must recover further from this support zone.

Bottom Line

In conclusion, Bitcoin shows the potential for a strong recovery from the long term support zone of $50,000 to $60,000. The formation of rounding bottom indicates a move higher in Bitcoin. However, the confirmation of the bottom will come at the initial resistance of $95,000. Similarly, the Bitcoin to gold ratio also shows the shifting momentum in March 2026. This shift is observed first time since the drop began in August 2025.

Despite this recovery in the Bitcoin market broader macro environment still remains uncertain. A potential ceasefire and stability in the energy market will likely push the Bitcoin price higher. On the other hand, the failure of ceasefire and higher energy prices will fuel inflation in the system and keep Bitcoin and risk assets under pressure. As long as the $50,000 level in Bitcoin holds, the probability of Bitcoin returning to a stronger trend is higher.

If you’d like to know more about how crypto markets work, please visit our educational area.