Gold vs. Bitcoin: XAUUSD Eyes $3500 While BTC Nears Breakout

President Trump’s tariff hikes and claims that China violated their trade agreement have escalated trade tensions. The increase in steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50% will likely raise input costs across industries. The auto industry warns of production halts due to limited access to rare earth magnets. These disruptions and rising inflation risks could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Gold (XAUUSD) may benefit from this uncertainty to test the record levels of $3,500.

Moreover, Bitcoin (BTC) may also attract inflows amid growing trade instability and inflation concerns. Restrictions on semiconductor and tech-related exports and China’s delay in rare earth shipments signal a deeper economic standoff. This environment supports decentralised assets. However, Bitcoin trades at a key long-term level and requires a successful breakout above $115,000. A failure to break this level may trigger a correction. However, escalating geopolitical risks and rising inflation expectations weaken the US Dollar. These developments support gold and Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Approaches Breakout Zone

The chart below shows the Bitcoin to Gold ratio. It highlights a consistent historical pattern of ascending triangles followed by major bull cycle tops. Each triangle led to a breakout and triggered strong upward moves. The current structure forms the fourth ascending triangle, with a breakout zone in play. If history repeats, Bitcoin may enter another major bull phase relative to gold.

However, gold remains firm above key support levels. It continues to benefit from safe-haven demand and rising inflation expectations. If the ratio breaks above 40, it may push Bitcoin above $115,000 and trigger a strong surge.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

BTC Approaches Major Resistance

The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows that the price is trading near a strong long-term resistance zone. This resistance lies between the $105,000 and $115,000 range. A break above $115,000 could trigger a powerful long-term move toward the $250,000 level.

A bullish cup pattern has formed. The breakout from the descending broadening wedge and the appearance of a bullish hammer near the 50 SMA support the bullish outlook. However, the price must break above the key resistance to confirm bullish momentum.

Historically, Bitcoin formed a double top in April and November 2021, which led to a sharp decline. A similar setup appeared again in 2024. Peaks in December 2024 and May 2024 suggest a possible double top. However, a breakout above $115,000 would invalidate this bearish setup and confirm a strong bullish continuation.

Volatility Patterns Shape BTC’s Short-Term Outlook

The daily chart for Bitcoin also highlights a key resistance level. The chart shows an ascending broadening wedge pattern that has formed since 2023. The first target at the $73,000 area and the second at $105,000 have been achieved.

The correction from $105,000 found strong support near the previous breakout zone, around $73,000. This support has pushed the price slightly above $105,000 but below the $115,000 resistance area. To continue the uptrend, Bitcoin must break above $115,000.

The red line at $105,000 remains a key level. A confirmed breakout above $115,000 could open the door toward the $140,000 area. The ascending broadening wedge pattern also suggests high volatility, and the price may correct lower before the next strong bullish leg.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Trades Near Key Resistance With Bullish Patterns

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that it trades at a pivotal level, attempting to break above the $3,500 area. The formation of an ascending broadening wedge pattern indicates that the price has broken above resistance and is continuing higher. The emergence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern within this structure highlights strong bullish momentum and suggests a move to the upside. A break above $3,500 will likely initiate a strong rally.

XAUUSD Consolidates Below $3,500 with Breakout Likely

The chart below shows that each consolidation has acted as a bullish signal for the next move higher. Recently, gold prices have been consolidating between the $3,000 and $3,500 region. A break above $3,500 will likely trigger another surge in gold prices.