Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

By:

Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: Gold saw a lot of price action but still traded for the week in a fairly contained range, closing on Friday at

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold saw a lot of price action but still traded for the week in a fairly contained range, closing on Friday at 1697.05 after topping out the week at 1724.75 ahead of the FOMC decision and press conference. The pair saw a bottom of 1694.65 as traders looked at high risk assets. The range for the week varied only 30 dollar but most of that was short lived ahead of the FOMC. The pair closed between 1712.95 and 1697.05 a tighter range of only 15.00 dollar.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	1697.05	1698.15	1701.65	1694.65	-0.05%
Dec 13, 2012	1697.95	1710.25	1711.15	1690.85	-0.73%
Dec 12, 2012	1710.45	1710.65	1724.75	1708.65	-0.01%
Dec 11, 2012	1710.55	1712.85	1715.75	1706.25	-0.14%
Dec 10, 2012	1712.95	1704.95	1718.75	1704.15	0.48%

Even with the US fiscal cliff just days away and a last minute deal a sure thing, the tax implications are making traders uneasy and are not adding to positions. Many traders are selling losing and profitable trades ahead of year end to avoid unknown tax changes.

Even though gold has settled lower on the week for the past three weeks, the yellow metal still has its adherents. Bulls cite the underlying fundamentals for gold, including the ultra-loose monetary policy by most global central banks as keeping the gold supported for the time being.

This week’s U.S. economic reports include the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes, which are manufacturing gauges, several pieces of housing data, and a third-quarter gross domestic product data revision. However, market watchers said it’s likely that fiscal cliff talks will overshadow everything else.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-9%	-7%	-7%
	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	6.9	-12.0	-15.7
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	7.6	0.1	-2.6
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
Dec. 12	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-3.0K	7.0K	6.0K
	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.4%	0.2%	-2.3%
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.1%
	CHF	Interest Rate Decision	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-12	-16	-21
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.6	45.0	44.5
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	46.3	47.2	46.8
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.3	46.6	46.2
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.5%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
Dec. 19	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.0	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	108.0	108.1
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	96.3	95.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	25	33
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
Dec. 20	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	-0.8%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.5%	0.6%
Dec. 21	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-14.0B	-20.8B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	1.0%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.1%	-0.1%