Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Struggles Under $2,365; Sell Now?

Arslan Ali
Published: Jul 4, 2024, 06:32 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Soft U.S. economic indicators reinforce Fed rate cut expectations, supporting gold prices.
  • June's ADP report shows slower job growth, with unemployment claims at a 2.5-year high.
  • ISM Services PMI for June drops to its lowest since May 2020, highlighting economic slowdown.
Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Struggles Under $2,365; Sell Now?

In this article:

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) exhibited slight gains in early European trading on Thursday, though the momentum stalled below the highs seen in the previous session.

The rise in global equity markets, buoyed by a generally positive investor sentiment, presented a challenge to gold, traditionally sought after as a safe haven.

This situation unfolded against the backdrop of reduced trading activity due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, leading to thinner market liquidity.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Gold Prices

Despite the headwinds from robust equities, gold’s decline is tempered by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts later this year. These expectations were bolstered by recent U.S. economic data indicating a softening labor market and slowing economic growth.

Details from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggest a consensus among Fed officials that U.S. economic expansion is moderating. Consequently, the dip in U.S. Treasury yields and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which hit a three-week low, are likely to support gold prices moving forward.

Key Economic Indicators and Gold Price Dynamics

Recent soft U.S. economic indicators have reinforced the market’s anticipation of forthcoming Fed rate cuts. The ADP employment report showed a slowdown in private-sector job growth in June, and unemployment claims reached a 2.5-year high, highlighting weaker labor market conditions.

Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for June fell into contraction territory, its lowest point since May 2020, underscoring the economic slowdown at the quarter’s end. This collection of data feeds into expectations for reduced borrowing costs, potentially as soon as September, with further cuts anticipated in December.

Outlook and Future Data Releases

As traders and investors await the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday, the gold market remains cautious. This upcoming report is critical for providing clearer indications of the Federal Reserve’s likely actions in the near term, which will significantly influence the trajectory of gold prices.

The outcome of this report could either confirm the current support for gold or shift market expectations, affecting gold’s price dynamics in the international market.

Short-term Forecast

Gold prices show slight gains, trading at $2355.76. A cautious market awaits the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, influencing future price dynamics.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold - Chart
Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2355.76, up 0.13%. The 2-hour chart identifies a pivot point at $2353.63. Immediate resistance is at $2365.00, with further resistance at $2374.45 and $2382.14. Support levels are at $2342.33, $2331.70, and $2318.83.

Technical indicators highlight the 50 EMA at $2338.21 and the 200 EMA at $2331.47, suggesting a bullish trend. However, gold has entered the overbought zone, and the formation of a doji candle under $2364 could indicate a potential selling trend. Gold remains bullish above $2360, but a break below this level could trigger sharp selling.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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